Nov 5, 2008

Dodo alert

What is happening to the moderate Republicans? How did those from the top of the Republican part of the 110th House rankings do in this election?
  1. Wayne Gilchrest (MD-1) lost in the primary to the conservative Andy Harris. Harris is currently trailing Democrat Frank Kratovil by 915 votes.
  2. Jim Ramstad (MN-3) did not run for reelection. In his district, Republican Erik Paulsen defeated Democrat Ashwin Madia. Paulsen's campaign involved some dirty advertising, not a good sign for moderation.
  3. Frank Lobiondo (NJ-2) was reelected.
  4. Chris Smith (NJ-4) was reelected.
  5. 38-year-old Mike Ferguson (NJ-7) did not run for reelection. State Senate Minority Leader Leonard Lance kept the seat for the Republicans. Lance appears to be a moderate.
  6. Jim Saxton (NJ-3) retired. John Adler won the seat for the Democrats.
  7. John McHugh (NY-23) was reelected.
  8. Jim Walsh (NY-25) did not seek reelection. Daniel Maffei picked up the seat for the Democrats.
  9. Mark Kirk (IL-10) was reelected in a replay of the 2006 tight race against Dan Seals.
  10. Tim Johnson (IL-15) was easily reelected.
  11. Chris Shays (CT-4), the Last of the New England Republicans, lost to Democrat Jim Himes.
  12. Dave Reichert (WA-8) is leading Darcy Burner by less than 2000 votes with less than half of the precincts reporting. This is looking like a replay of their 2006 race, which Reichert won by 2%, but it may be even closer this time.
So, of the dozen most moderate House Republicans, 4 did not run, 1 was defeated in the Republican primary, 1 lost in the general election, 1 is involved in a very tight election, 1 was reelected in a slightly less tight race, and 4 were reelected with ease. As for the seats of the 4 who didn't run, 2 switched to Democrats, 1 to a more conservative Republican, and 1 to another moderate Republican. All in all, half of the dozen most moderate Republican seats in the House have switched out of that category.

For comparison, of the 12 most conservative House members, 11 were easily reelected; only Bill Sali from Idaho lost (to Democrat Walt Minnick).

Moderate republicans are going the way of the dodo.

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